A ministerial advisory group delivered a blunt verdict on the state of aged care in New Zealand last week.

The system, as it stands, cannot cope with the projected rise in the number of New Zealanders aged 65 or over, from 950,000 today to 1.3 million by 2040.

Without change, the report warns, New Zealand faces a shortfall of more than 9,000 residential care beds within a decade. Problems are already emerging through workforce shortages, bed closures and overstretched carers.

The report states plainly that aged care cannot be delivered without a stable, well-trained workforce. It recommends developing a strategy to promote aged care as a career and expand the recruitment pipeline.

But workforce training and accreditation fell outside the advisory group’s mandate. As a result, its recommendations focus largely on attraction, marketing and immigration settings, rather than on the students already enrolled in health professional programmes who are deciding, well before graduation, that aged care is not for them.

This gap matters. A reform programme of this scale cannot solve a shortage it was never asked to diagnose. No marketing campaign or immigration setting will close a workforce gap of this magnitude on its own.

This is not an abstract problem. It affects whether older New Zealanders receive care when they need........

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