Higher for Longer: Why Oil Prices Are Headed Higher Despite Current Headlines

RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP via Getty Images

Oil markets are funny things. Headlines scream one direction, but the fundamentals—those stubborn realities of supply, demand, and inventories—have a way of reasserting themselves. 

That’s exactly what Enverus Intelligence Research’s latest Fundamental Edge report, “Let’s Make a Deal,” makes clear. While traders chase peace-deal euphoria and fret over tweets, the data points to Brent crude settling in around $110 per barrel in the second half of 2026, with $105 in 2027. That’s a sharp upgrade from their prior $95 call, and it’s grounded in something far more reliable than the daily news cycle: persistently low global inventories. (RELATED: Politico’s Climate News Site Shutters A Year After Gov’t Turned Off Taxpayer Spigot)

A map from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows an approximation of the pipeline moving oil across Saudi Arabia to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. (Map created by the U.S. Energy Information Administration / Screenshot Obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation)

Enverus models a scenario where a U.S.-Iran peace deal lands by the end of June, cracking open the Strait of Hormuz. Markets might sell the headline initially—peace is supposed to mean more supply, right? But the ramp-up won’t be like flipping a switchto light up the living room. Flows today........

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