Follow the money: Why Trump will win the midterm elections

August 5, 2026 — 5:00am

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US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a record low. Most commentators believe his party will take a beating in the midterm elections in three months. Instead, the Republicans will probably win.

Yes, the Iran war is a running sore, bringing with it higher petrol prices, fertiliser shortages and economic pessimism. But there are half a billion reasons to believe the Republicans will emerge victorious in both houses of Congress.

The midterm elections determine the composition of Congress and occur halfway through the four-year term of a president. The Republicans hold both the Senate (53-47) and the House of Representatives (218-215). Republican strategists remain optimistic.

US elections are heavily determined by money, giving the Republicans a massive advantage because most billionaire mega-donors support them. History shows that the number of votes cast for the major parties closely tracks their campaign spending. For more than four decades, the top fundraiser has won 92 per cent of the time in congressional primaries and general elections. Individual Democratic candidates have raised more money in high-profile Senate contests and in many House ones as well, but Republicans and their allied groups dominate the overall fundraising landscape.

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Rodger ShanahanMiddle East and security analyst

Middle East and security analyst

Right now, the Republican Party has half a billion dollars more than the........

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