Brazil is headed for a runoff between center-left President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, after the latter took the lead in the first round by nearly two percentage points last Sunday.

Ahead of the vote, most polls had shown Da Silva leading the race, but the incumbent ultimately garnered 45.1% of the vote, while his rival, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (2018-2022), got 47% — a strong showing, but not enough to secure the more than 50% needed to win in the first round. 

The two candidates will face each other again on October 25.

The first post-election survey, published by polling agency Datafolha, shows Bolsonaro ahead in the runoff, with 49% of vote intention against 45% for Lula.

Three Brazilian analysts spoke with the Herald to break down the election results and discuss what they could mean for the candidates and the country as a whole.

“Flávio Bolsonaro’s victory in the first round was a huge surprise,” said political analyst Creomar De Souza, CEO and founder of consulting firm Dharma Political Risk and Strategy. 

“The prevailing belief here was that Lula would be the winner,” he said, citing the numerous polls that had pointed to that outcome.

Political scientist Cláudio Couto, a professor at the Fundação Getulio Vargas Business School, told the Herald what surprised him wasn’t that Bolsonaro came ahead, but rather the unexpected “massive victory” of his Liberal Party (PL, by its Portuguese initials) in congressional and gubernatorial elections.

The party won the most gubernatorial races in the country, with outright victories in five states. That number could rise to seven after runoffs in the states of Amazonas and Rio de Janeiro.

For Paulo Niccoli Ramirez, a political science professor at the Higher School of Advertising and Marketing (ESPM) and the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics Foundation (FESPSP), Bolsonaro’s win “demonstrates the strength of the Bolsonarists, their use of social media, and their ability to sway voters’ thinking through Instagram, Twitter or Facebook.”

Can Lula turn the election around?

Although the gap between Da Silva and Bolsonaro in the first round was less than two percentage points, the analysts........

© Buenos Aires Herald