IN THREE MONTHS, 27 October 2026, the people of Israel will go to the polls. Benjamin Netanyahu is behind in every opinion poll, with a return to government looking increasingly unlikely. That may appear to represent hope for Palestine, but all the evidence is that government change, by no means certain, would not lead to any appreciable change in Israel’s policy on Palestine.

As the election comes closer, the fate of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank may be even more perilous than the nearly three years since October 2023. Israel’s increasingly right-wing electorate means those vying to replace Benjamin Netanyahu may compete by offering equally hardline policies.

Opinion polls by Israel’s Democratic Institute and Pew Research show a huge increase in the number of Jewish citizens who profile themselves as right-wing. It was 29% in 1995, the year Yitzak Rabin was assassinated. In 2019, it had reached 46%, and in 2022 it was 62%. A year ago, in 2025, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz published a poll that showed 82% of Israeli Jews favoured the expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza.

Fintan Drury's book, Genocide: Sponsoring the Destruction of Palestine is out now. Merrion Press Merrion Press

Public opinion on Israel’s conduct is changing among the electorate of its greatest ally and sponsor-in-chief of its genocide, the United States of America. There is clear evidence of layers of public weariness in the US over Israel; unchecked, it will translate into some change in the Capitol Hill mix, but not policy in the short or even medium term.

Beyond that, while the slide in public support is largely about the financial drain, whatever its cause, any future diminution of government support could offer some relief to Palestinians. Such a........

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