Hurricane Isaias shattered the peace of one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record as it grew into 2026’s first Atlantic hurricane and headed for the northern Gulf Coast, with landfall expected late on Oct. 9 or early Oct. 10.

Coastal residents and store owners in Alabama and the Florida Panhandle quickly began boarding up windows and preparing sandbags for damaging wind, rain and storm surge. Tyndall Air Force Base, which suffered severe hurricane damage in 2018, started evacuating fighter jets.

Isaias tied a 1905 storm for the latest-forming first hurricane of a season on record. To understand why it was able to strengthen into a hurricane when no other storms in the first two-thirds of the 2026 season did, let’s take a look at what was going on in the atmosphere.

As an atmospheric scientist who has studied hurricanes for years, I can tell you that wind shear and the climate phenomenon known as El Niño both play important roles.

Why the 2026 season had such a quiet start

Usually, Atlantic hurricane activity hits its peak in September. In a typical season, the Atlantic region........

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