Sport has always been television’s most reliable draw. Unlike drama, which can be streamed at leisure, or news, which can be consumed in clips, sport demands live attention. It cannot be spoiled, paused until convenient or reduced to a highlight without losing something essential. That quality has made it the last true fortress of broadcast television, and it is now the centrepiece of one of the most strategically significant battles in global media.

The question I am asked most often, from broadcasters in Europe to platform executives in Asia, is this: Are American sports leagues genuinely gaining ground internationally, or is it marketing noise? Having spent considerable time studying the data across more than 100 markets, my answer is unambiguous. The expansion is real, it is measurable and it is accelerating. But it’s also more complex, and more market-dependent, than the leagues themselves would perhaps like to acknowledge.

The NFL’s decade-long bet on Europe

The NFL’s story in Germany is the clearest illustration of what sustained investment in free-to-air television can achieve. When Pro7 broadcast the first full NFL season in Germany in 2015-16, it reached around 13 million unique viewers. A decade later, following RTL’s acquisition of........

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