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With less than two weeks to go before the midterms, the tale is the same as it has been all fall: It’s hard to find anything going Republicans’ way. Look around. While the GOP’s super PACs continue flooding Senate races in red states like Texas, Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa with ads, Senate Democrats’ super PAC is investing in Mississippi. In the House, Republican election groups are retreating from lost causes to defend core seats.

But as Democrats put away House districts and Senate races in states like Georgia and North Carolina, one race is swimming curiously against the tide.

On the same day that the election handicappers at the Cook Political Report shifted their rating of the Mississippi and South Carolina Senate races in Democrats’ favor, and fellow forecasters at Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved dozens of House races Democrats’ way, Cook made another change. It moved the Minnesota Senate race, a contest between Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Republican former sports reporter Michele Tafoya, from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” Crystal Ball had made a similar decision the previous week. In other words, forecasters believe Flanagan is still the favorite, but not by much.

What’s going on here? Why, in a great environment for Democrats, and in a consistently blue state like Minnesota, is this race looking like a squeaker?

It’s not the same as New Hampshire, Democrats’ other misbehaving light-blue state that should be a shoo-in this year but somehow isn’t. In the Granite State, Republicans are running a former senator from the state’s Republican royal family, and Republican outside groups invested substantially, and early, in that race. Senate Republicans’ main super PAC, meanwhile, hasn’t put any money behind Tafoya’s bid; each candidate’s campaign has spent a civilized couple-million dollars each. And it’s not that Minnesota is a runaway train trending redder demographically. It’s dominated by the Twin Cities, and has a high percentage of adults with college degrees, the dividing line on which so much of Trump-era political realignment hinges.

Instead, Democrats’ inability........

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