ON 12 June 2026, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reportedly declared that India would halt Indus River water flows to Pakistan over cross-border terrorism. Responding to his statement, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared every drop of water a red line and vowed a direct response. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that Pakistan views water security as an existential national security issue, while threatening to target upstream structures built by India on the rivers.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed between the two states, has survived three major conflicts between the two sides. It has outlasted governments and crises that should, by any measure, have broken it. Yet it survived and, by global standards, can be regarded as one of the most stress-tested bilateral water institutions ever built. However, India’s declaration of placing the Treaty in abeyance in April 2025, following the Pahalgam terror attack, has not merely intensified bilateral tensions but has also brought both countries closer to the verge of conflict.

The 1997 UN Watercourses Convention binds states to obligations concerning the equitable use of shared watercourses, prior notification, data exchange and........

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