Oct 20, 2026 13:17 pm IST

Opinion | The Last Bet? What Trump's 'Mother Of All Bombs' Could Actually Do To Iran

Can an MOAB deliver a decisive blow to Iran that may force it to surrender immediately, as Japan did after Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War 2?

Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Columnist

Col (Retd) Rajeev Agarwal Columnist

On October 18, US President Donald Trump finally endorsed the candidature of Benjamin Netanyahu for re-election as Israel's Prime Minister, adding that they will soon finish the job together (defeating Iran). On the ground, however, despite the fact that there has been no direct exchange of strikes between the US and Iran over the past 30 days, the situation is far from stable. With each day, the number of vessels that Iran is striking in the Strait of Hormuz is rising sharply despite the US promising safe passage to ships through air escorts and security assurances. As per UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors the transit of ships across the Hormuz, more than 26 ships have been hit by Iran over the past two weeks, which includes at least three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), which can typically carry up to 2 million barrels of oil. 

Surprisingly, the UKMTO admits that this figure may be grossly conservative, as not even 50% cases of ships being hit are being reported or recorded. In the past two weeks, ships have also been struck deep in the Gulf of Oman as well as off the coast of Qatar in the Persian Gulf. 

By doing this, Iran is not only displaying its ability to target ships beyond the Hormuz but is putting at risk the bypass formula for a safe and discreet method of transporting oil, increasing the risk and premium on the availability of ships. The US is, however, exercising restraint in firing back at Iran, more due to indecisiveness, coupled with the apprehension of an even stronger Iranian retaliation on its bases in the region if it strikes Iran.

On the other hand, the global energy crisis has flagged two important issues. Firstly, despite reports indicating that crude oil exports from the Gulf region (including the oil transported through pipelines in the Red Sea) in September rose to pre-war levels and even touched 22 million barrels per day, the prices remain high and are currently trading in the range of $109 per barrel. Secondly, the availability crisis of diesel is compounding the global energy crisis, both due to rising prices and scarcity in the market. Diesel is currently being sold in excess of $6.50 per gallon in the US, much higher........

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