The AfD has surged to nearly 30 percent in recent polls and more than 20 percent in the 2025 federal elections despite a political firewall and media criticism, with its openly market-liberal, fiscally conservative, and anti-redistribution platform distinguishing it from most other European populist radical right parties.

Strong support among blue-collar workers and the unemployed is linked to Germany’s industrial decline, energy shocks, and costly green policies, which the AfD seeks to reverse by advocating cheaper Russian gas, lower decarbonization targets, and tighter welfare eligibility for migrants.

The author argues that lower-income voters are shifting from class-based redistribution demands toward skepticism of oversized government and cronyism, suggesting a durable preference for smaller government that could restore economic dynamism if the AfD consistently implements free-market policies.

Populist radical right parties have gained remarkable traction across Europe since the refugee crisis of 2014-2016. In a series of recent shock votes, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won elections in two East German states and also made substantial gains at national level. In the 2025 federal elections it doubled its support to more than 20 per cent of votes and also tops recent polls with almost 30 per cent of votes.

AfD’s breakthrough occurred despite significant efforts by the German establishment to contain its rise. The AfD, like most populist radical right parties (PRRPs) in Europe, respects the existing constitutional order and democratic rules. Yet, mainstream political parties instituted a “firewall” to isolate it from normal alliances and coalitions. Corporate media has constantly criticized the party as populist, right-wing extremist and a threat to democracy, while focusing heavily on scandals and controversial statements rather on its agenda and policies. Authorities have even classified the AfD as “confirmed right-wing extremist” in 2025, although this action was legally contested subsequently.

It is doubtful that almost one in three German voters support the AfD because they might entertain xenophobe and extremist views. Given Germany’s recent dismal economic performance and chronic industrial decline it is more likely that the party’s policies are striking a chord with voters’ economic grievances. AfD’s economic agenda is strongly market-liberal and could go a long way in addressing Germany’s economic woes. Paradoxically, despite its pro-business and anti-redistribution stance, the party enjoys significant support among blue-collar voters. This suggests that traditional voter preferences in favour of generous welfare redistribution and big government may start to change.

Unlike most other European populist parties, the AfD is openly market-liberal

Concerns about excessive immigration have driven the rise of PRRPs in Europe. Perceived failure to integrate newcomers, in particular those with a different cultural and religious background, led........

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