Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2026: 2025 power demand ~5%; clean generation covered the rise and thermal (mostly coal) fell 0.7%—first annual drop in a decade (unlike 2015, when thermal fell because demand barely grew). EVs cut ~0.4–0.5 mb/d of gasoline; broader avoided oil ~1 mb/d or more—above OECD Europe’s 179 million barrels of government strategic stocks at end-2025. Coal generation has been roughly flat on a 12-month average since early 2024.

Scale at home: ~1,700 GW of wind and solar added in a decade (more than the whole 2015 grid); 2025 battery storage 84%, China ~60% of new global storage; electric trucks ~26% of new sales. H1 2025 curtailment: solar 5.7%, wind 6.6%; Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai above the 10% cap. 1 Sept 2026: consumption tax on mainstream batteries; solar-cell levy due 2027. Global clean-tech trade ~$479bn in 2025.

U.S. and EU treat surplus panels, batteries, and EVs as industrial risk; the same surplus cut prices and pushed kit into developing markets (Ethiopia EVs, Pakistan solar) after tariffs redirected flows. EU still leans on Chinese panels and batteries; U.S. IRA does not fix upstream minerals (CSIS). India added 37 GW of solar in 2025 vs China’s 315.1 GW. Author: use the cheap kit without deepening lock-in.

In 2025, China’s electricity demand rose about 5%. Clean power expanded fast enough to meet that surge, pushing thermal generation, mostly coal-based, down 0.7% — the first annual decline in a decade, according to Ember’s China Energy Transition Review 2026. This marked a significant departure from 2015, when thermal generation fell largely because electricity demand barely grew, rising just 0.5%, the slowest pace since 1974.

Beyond electricity, rapid transport electrification is also reducing domestic oil demand. Ember notes that electric vehicles (EVs) are displacing around 0.4–0.5 million barrels of gasoline a day, while broader estimates put avoided oil demand at around or above 1 million barrels a day — roughly 365–400 million barrels a year. That is more than double the 179 million barrels of government-held strategic oil inventories in OECD Europe at the end of 2025.

The findings complicate a debate usually framed as a purely industrial........

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