Elections have always been about turnout – if your voters don’t show up, you lose. It’s pretty simple, actually. Yet that bit of “wisdom” will be treated as though it is a revelation that just revealed itself to pundits as they mutter it on panel shows.

But turnout is where everything related to modern politics and polling falls absolutely to hell, as there are groups of people who either can’t be reached by pollsters or do not want to be, who will play an outsized role in who will win this November.

On the right, MAGA voters have proven nearly impossible for pollsters to track. Most polls are conducted in association with some left-wing media outlet – NBC News, ABC, CNN, etc. – that most MAGA voters not only don't believe, but they don’t trust them to the point that they won’t even talk with them.

Statistical sampling is very important in polling; you can’t call every member of a minority group while running a poll, so you have to determine what part of the whole you’re calling is needed to represent each configuration of people. When you’re dealing with polls, you’re usually looking at 500 or so people, either nationally or statewide. That’s a very small sample, so your pool........

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