Four years ago, before the Russian tanks thundered toward Kyiv, Russian gas was still flowing freely to Germany and the rest of Europe. In Russian cities such as Kaluga, factories producing European vehicles were fully operational; Russian oligarchs were enjoying the good life in their mansions across the continent; and President Vladimir Putin was meddling in European politics as if stirring a pot of borscht.

In those days, the European Union was Russia’s largest trading partner. Trade turnover was based on Russian exports of energy sources and raw materials, as well as on imports of European equipment, cars, medicines, and chemical products. In 2021, the EU met a significant portion of its energy needs from Russia, with Germany and the Netherlands serving as the main trading partners.

Since the Russian president ordered the invasion — in an attempt to subdue Ukraine, establish facts on the ground, and become the hegemon on the continent — Europe, left with no other choice, decided to sever itself from Russia. The results have been disastrous for Moscow.

The question of belonging to Europe or alienation from it has always stood at the center of Russia’s philosophical and historical discourse, both in the era of the tsars and in the 21st century. Putin chose to settle this debate with the start of his broad campaign in Ukraine, when he decided to rely on Asia instead of Europe.

However, his new partners, China and India, did not rush to invest in the Russian economy as the Europeans did. They bought Russian energy products at rock-bottom prices and sold Russia new cars, but they did not build factories there, nor did they show any interest in rehabilitating or developing the Russian economy.

The two Asian powers have no intention of giving up European or American markets for Russia’s sake; both look down on Russia as a little sister.

Ultimately, the Russian market today is flooded with Chinese goods (which are not necessarily cheap), but Chinese investors are not flocking to Moscow. At the same time, India has significantly reduced its purchases of Russian oil under pressure from US President Donald Trump (with the surplus oil being sold instead to China).

The gamble on Asia did not pay off for Russia, whose economy is now experiencing a massive structural crisis. While China and India continue to maintain close relationships with Moscow, neither is lifting a finger to rescue it from the economic pit into which it has dug itself.

Even if the war in Ukraine ends, the major European customers have already found substitutes, and trust in Russia as a reliable supplier of gas and oil will remain at a low for a long time. Severing itself from Western innovation and technology — both American and European — has condemned Russia to an ongoing technological lag that only continues to deepen.

And yet, Russia continues to fight in the hope of winning a war of attrition that is exacting a tremendously heavy price from Ukraine as well. Putin — who built a war economy that functioned well in the first two years but has been stumbling and limping over the last two — prefers an economic crisis over a compromise that his loyalists might interpret as surrender.

To sustain the current war effort on the front, Putin will most likely have to declare a general mobilization. This is a highly unpopular step, but at the moment, it is the only means to recruit the required number of soldiers.

The newly drafted conscripts will not receive the generous enlistment bonuses granted to those who sign special military contracts. They will be sent to the killing fields almost for free — a significant economic saving for a state that remains unmoved by the fact that roughly a million of its sons have already lost their lives on the battlefield.

An acute labor shortage is already being felt in Russia. Wage inflation in regions tied to the war effort has created a sharp dichotomy between those who receive slices or crumbs from the war-economy pie and those left completely outside it. Yet, the Russian president cannot give up: For him, it is all or nothing.

For Putin, there are only two options: either he achieves the optimal agreement for himself, hoping Trump will corner the Ukrainians and Europeans, or he wears the Ukrainians down on the battlefield and seizes control of most of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine within a year or two. Any outcome that fails to achieve this goal will be perceived by him as surrender.

Of course, if at the end of this bloody war Russia succeeds in bringing about regime change in Ukraine and effectively taking control of the lands it has already formally annexed, it will deal an unbearable blow to Ukraine, to European security and to the entire free world.

But at the same time, it is impossible today to ignore the disastrous situation inside Russia itself, a reality that will not change fundamentally even if it achieves its aims: the break with Europe, the choking sanctions, the weakness vis-à-vis its Asian “partners,” the technological lag, the severe damage to its productive capacity, the bottomless economic pit, and the deep demographic crisis.

All of these components together create a perfect storm that has dealt a fatal blow to Russia. This is a man-made crisis, and it is not going to pass anytime soon.

Four years ago, Putin plunged his country into a dangerous whirlpool and gambled with its future in an attempt to cement his rule.

He eliminated his rivals in Russia and abroad; his courts pursued young women who hung up anti-war signs and elderly people who criticized how the war was being conducted. He strangled what remained of the free press, causing millions of Russians — journalists, human rights activists, doctors, lawyers, engineers, and high-tech professionals — to leave their country and wander in exile.

Yet, throughout four years of fighting — and the Russia-Ukraine war has already lasted longer than the “Great Patriotic War” that began in June 1941 and ended in May 1945 — Putin has failed to achieve his military objectives, failed to build an alternative economy, and failed to create a sustainable vision for his citizens, whom he views as mere subjects and nothing more.

Today, Russia no longer belongs to Europe — against which it continues to struggle both ideologically and militarily — but it also does not belong to any other alliance, and it certainly does not lead any alternative bloc.

If Putin continues on his current path, Russia will increasingly resemble its extreme partner, North Korea, and become an ever more isolated country.

If so, we have a request. 

Every day during the past two years of war and rising global anti-Zionism and antisemitism, our journalists kept you abreast of the most important developments that merit your attention. Millions of people rely on ToI for fact-based coverage of Israel and the Jewish world. 

We care about Israel - and we know you do too. So we have an ask for this new year of 2026: express your values by joining The Times of Israel Community, an exclusive group for readers like you who appreciate and financially support our work. 

We’re really pleased that you’ve read X Times of Israel articles in the past month.

You clearly find our careful reporting valuable, in a time when facts are often distorted and news coverage often lacks context.

Your support is essential to continue our work. We want to continue delivering the professional journalism you value, even as the demands on our newsroom have grown dramatically since October 7.

So today, please consider joining our reader support group, The Times of Israel Community. For as little as $6 a month you'll become our partners while enjoying The Times of Israel AD-FREE, as well as accessing exclusive content available only to Times of Israel Community members.

Thank you,David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel

1 Dead Sea ScrollsGreat Isaiah Scroll, oldest near-complete biblical book ever found, on show in entirety for 1st time since 1968

2 InterviewTaking a final lap in Milan, US skating medalist Emery Lehman enters Jewish Olympic lore

3 AnalysisThe Tucker Carlson-Mike Huckabee debate is a battle for the GOP’s soul on Israel

4 Trump said frustrated with limits of military leverage against Iran

5 Netanyahu: An attack on Israel would be ‘most serious mistake’ in Iranian history

6 Trump: Top general doesn’t oppose Iran war, thinks it would be ‘easily won’

7 ExclusiveHamas seen working to maintain control of Gaza via Trump-backed bodies

8 US refuelers, cargo planes spotted at Ben Gurion Airport as Iran tensions ramp up

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia-North Korea relations

Russia-Ukraine relations

© The Times of Israel