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RBA gets its wish after unemployment hits 4.7%

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20.10.2026

In May, when the RBA raised the cash rate for the third time in three consecutive meetings, journalist Michael Pascoe asked its governor, Michele Bullock, a question.

Based on the Reserve Bank’s then-prediction for unemployment to hit 4.7 per cent in June 2028, Pascoe asked: “So if the forecast comes true and unemployment does go up to 4.7 per cent, that would be considered too high?”

Bear in mind that, at the time, the most recent figures the Bureau of Statistics had released showed unemployment was 4.3 per cent.

Governor Bullock replied: “No, I’m not saying it’s too high.”

Well, we no longer need to wait until June 2028, because last week the ABS revealed that not only was unemployment 4.7 per cent in September, its revised figures show that it hit that level in August.

That’s a full 22 months earlier than the RBA predicted.

Now maybe that’s being harsh, because in August the RBA changed its projections and predicted unemployment would reach 4.7 per cent in December next year. But hey, it is still 16 months ahead of schedule.

That’s some excellent work. If only everyone else was so good at reaching their goals.

If you think I’m being mean about the Reserve Bank wanting........

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