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Greg Jericho

Greg Jericho

The Guardian

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A predicted deficit will get the headlines, but remember that budgets are about choices

18.12.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Politicians love talking about ‘middle Australia’. But beware of this misleading metric

11.12.2024 20

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

What do the latest GDP figures tell us? That the RBA is still getting it very wrong

The Australian economy is now so weak due to the Reserve Bank’s 13 interest rate hikes that were it not for commonwealth and state government...

04.12.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Welcome to Trump’s trade war – where no one wins because everyone just pays more for things

If anyone was under any delusion that Donald Trump was not going to be as bonkers as he said he would be, then his announcement on Tuesday that he...

27.11.2024 9

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Australia took its interest rate medicine – and it has poisoned our living standards

I always worry when I hear politicians or economists talk about how the economy needs to be administered some painful medicine. Inevitably it means...

21.11.2024 40

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

It’s time for the RBA to admit its fears of a wage-price spiral were misguided – and cut interest rates

The latest wage growth figures should make the Reserve Bank cut rates in December as their absurd worries about a wage-price spiral have been...

13.11.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Private health insurance is a dud. That’s why a majority of Australians don’t have it

Right now final submissions are being made by private health insurers to the government for an increase in insurance premiums next year. In light of...

12.11.2024 80

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Labor cutting Hecs debt is not a perfect policy – but why the feigned outrage over ‘fairness’?

The federal government’s plan to cut 20% off Hecs/Help has been met with some ludicrous claims about fairness that has to make you wonder if people...

06.11.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Labor’s actions to lower inflation have worked – so why is the RBA unlikely to cut interest rates next week?

The latest inflation figures delivered both the good news that inflation is below 3% for the first time since early 2021 and the sense that it won’t...

30.10.2024 30

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Australia’s unemployment figures are a reason for joy – even if it means waiting for the next interest rate cut

The latest unemployment rate should be met with cheers rather than gloom about it putting off a rate cut. We don’t need higher unemployment to get a...

23.10.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Here’s a way to fix Australia’s skills shortage – and raise wages at the same time

Skills shortages are nothing new. Ten years ago, when unemployment was 5.9%, I wrote about how business groups were demanding more migration to tackle...

16.10.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

On the climate crisis, housing and more, politicians avoid clarity because it demands action

After spending any time analysing policy you quickly realise that politicians expend a supreme level of effort to avoid doing the obvious, and instead...

10.10.2024 30

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Plibersek’s coalmine decision is double trouble for climate and housing

When the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, approved three new coalmine expansions last week, she not only failed abjectly to act on climate...

02.10.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Inflation may be falling but business’ drive to maximise profits fuelled Australia’s cost-of-living nightmare

This week came the evidence that governments can reduce inflation. We also saw evidence that companies don’t actually set prices responding to...

25.09.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

A terrace house is for sale in Sydney for $22m. The grotesquely unfair capital gains discount is partly to blame

This week a friend who lives in Sydney posted a link on social media to the story of a terrace house on the market for $22m. She noted, with the...

11.09.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Now the Australian economy is on its knees, will the RBA finally start cutting interest rates?

The June quarter GDP figures released yesterday reveal just how badly the Reserve Bank has misread the economy. Its decision to sharply raise interest...

04.09.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Unemployment is rising and Australia’s economy is weak — but don’t hit the recession alarm just yet

Next week’s March quarter GDP figures will once again put the spotlight on the weakness of the economy. But questions about a recession are already...

29.08.2024 20

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

The horror, the horror: banks are having to compete for our business by offering better rates

Banks, I know you will be sad to hear, are apparently doing it tough. So tough that they are starting to cut term deposit rates because they think the...

21.08.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

The RBA and its critics claim Australia’s economy needs to be slowed down. But the data shows both are wrong

Right now, a key debate over the economy is between the Reserve Bank and the government over just how hot the economy is running. The RBA suggests...

14.08.2024 9

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

A Reserve Bank cut is on the cards by the end of the year – but the property price nightmare is set to worsen

From worrying about another rate rise, the question now is when the Reserve Bank will move to cut rates. For those wanting to buy their first home,...

07.08.2024 9

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Australians are struggling to make ends meet. This is not an economy in need of more rate rises

The June quarter inflation figures released yesterday brought a sigh of relief from those worried the Reserve Bank might be about to raise rates next...

31.07.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

A second Trump presidency would send Australia down a dark economic path. Here’s how it might play out

While Kamala Harris has restored some hope for Democrats in November, the likelihood of a Trump presidency still remains very strong. And if that...

25.07.2024 60

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Australian workers’ living standards have been destroyed – and there is little good news ahead

Over the next few weeks, the Reserve Bank will ponder just how strong the economy is. And if it focuses on the labour market, unfortunately the signs...

17.07.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

As the Coalition goes nuclear, Labor is free to ensure fossil fuels are burned with abandon and little scrutiny

The sham of Australia’s climate change policy has been made clear in the past two weeks. No, not nuclear power. Last Friday, while everyone was...

26.06.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Households are hurting. Savings are weak. The future’s uncertain. Is a rate cut near?

The Reserve Bank’s decision to keep rates steady reinforced that the economy at this moment remains one with both good and bad signs, and the RBA...

19.06.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Obsessing over the inflation rate misses one key point: the economy is more than just how fast prices are rising

Over the past few weeks some economists and commentators have become rather obsessed and unhinged about Australia’s inflation rate. You can, I...

12.06.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Australia is on the brink of recession. So why does the RBA think we are spending too much?

The latest GDP figures reveal that the RBA has got its wish of an economy growing so slowly that it teeters on the edge of a recession. Now we wait to...

05.06.2024 8

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics ‘Sticky’ inflation is not falling – but it’s not rising, either. Why should that mean another RBA rate hike?

The latest inflation figures released on Wednesday showed that inflation is “sticky” and is no longer falling at the pace it was earlier this...

29.05.2024 50

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Raising jobseeker is not ‘fiscally sustainable’? Sorry, but that is flat out wrong

On Monday the Productivity Commission released its snapshot of inequality report. As a “snapshot”, the report is just presenting the current...

22.05.2024 40

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Australians have lost 14 years of progress on living standards. A wages breakout? Please. If only

Remember all that talk about wage-price spirals? About wages driving inflation? All that worry about a wages breakout causing interest rates to...

15.05.2024 30

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Australia budget 2024: the six graphs you need to see

14.05.2024 80

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Those calling for higher interest rates in Australia should be careful of what they wish for

It seems that some people really want a recession. The estimates of inflation not falling below 3% until the end of next year has led some...

08.05.2024 20

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The budget reveals what governments actually care about. And Labor has chosen to keep jobseekers in poverty

In 2022 Josh Frydenberg gave the budget game away when he was reported justifying the many billions of dollars spent on Aukus by saying, “everything...

02.05.2024 80

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The government shouldn’t boast about Australia’s latest CPI figures, but it shouldn’t panic either

Despite what the fearmongers would have you believe, the latest inflation figures showed that inflation remains well under control. Not only is there...

24.04.2024 20

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Funding Australia’s renewable transition isn’t ‘picking winners’ – it’s securing our future

Last week Anthony Albanese finally announced the government’s major plan for the transition to a renewable energy economy. The Future Made in...

17.04.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Talk of interest rate cuts soon is optimistic – here’s why the RBA may decide doing nothing is safer

This week the IMF told Australians what we already knew – we are hurting from rate rises harder than anyone. But unfortunately, that is unlikely to...

10.04.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Whether Australia’s budget has a surplus tells us little about the government’s worth – it’s all on the choices made

We are now a month away from the 2024-25 budget. And as with all budgets, the choices made matter much more than any big numbers that get the media...

03.04.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The push against wage rises has begun again – it’s an argument for Australia’s poorest workers to become poorer

As we gear up for the annual fight over the minimum wage it was nice to hear the governor of the Reserve Bank last week come out in defence of...

27.03.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Blaming John Howard is easy, but his government helped shape the world we live in – now and for future generations

When asking “Who screwed the millennials?” should we just apply Occam’s razor and answer “John Howard”? His government certainly shoulders a...

25.03.2024 6

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The Sahm rule lets us get in front of recessions – so alerts should be flashing in the Treasury and RBA

When the February unemployment figures are released on Thursday at 11.30am, there is a decent chance that, according to one measure, Australia will be...

20.03.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The ‘good old days’ for housing affordability were just four years ago – here’s why

What if 2020 was as good as it gets for housing affordability? Forget gathering around to hear old man Jericho talk about the good old days when Gen...

13.03.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Australia’s economy has slowed to a halt. It’s time for the Reserve Bank to take its foot off the brake

The latest GDP figures show that the Reserve Bank has slowed things down so drastically that Australia’s economy, for the first time for 40 years,...

06.03.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Australia taxes its massive gas exports so weakly that we pay more on Hecs than companies do on PRRT

In Hollywood everyone knows never to ask for a percentage of the film profits. These so-called “monkey points” are the stuff of legends and mirth....

28.02.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Wages are finally on the way up, but there’s a long way to go before workers feel relief

The good news is real wages are finally going up – and not by so much that the Reserve Bank should be worried that it needs to once again raise...

21.02.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The awful truth at the heart of Australian housing policy

Australian policy is dominated by interest groups and politicians pretending they are trying to do one thing, while actually doing the opposite, and...

14.02.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The RBA says it’s still worried about inflation, but few believe this will mean higher interest rates

Despite a new year and a new way of doing things, the thinking at the Reserve Bank remains the same – inflation is all about people having too much...

07.02.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Australian inflation is under control – now it’s time to worry about the economic health of households

That sound you heard was a massive sigh of relief from mortgage holders across the country as the latest inflation figures pretty much put an end to...

01.02.2024 20

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics When it comes to tax, what is bracket creep – and is ‘fixing’ it really that important?

The term “bracket creep” is getting thrown around with wild abandon at the moment, so we might as well get a handle on what it means and work out...

30.01.2024 9

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics The old stage-three cuts are dead. Long live Labor’s new policy, which 90% of Australians will cheer

It is fair to say I have not taken a neutral position on the stage-three tax cuts. After all, back in 2022 I was the guy who wrote “the stage-three...

24.01.2024 10

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

Grogonomics Neither a pandemic nor interest rate rises: can anything dent the Australian housing market?

Just in case you were ever worried that the Australian housing market might crumble, the latest ABS housing loan figures show that in November the...

17.01.2024 7

The Guardian

Greg Jericho

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