RIO DE JANEIRO – Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil’s presidential election is a blow to Donald Trump’s plan for the Western Hemisphere.

The U.S. president was hoping to huddle with client states to the south who mimic his business and mano dura (iron fist) posturing, while further betraying liberal partners. That plan, within reach until Sunday’s vote, is now in tatters.

Disentangling from the world and retreating into a seemingly controllable hemispheric stronghold has been an American dream since the early 19th century. It was inscribed in the Monroe Doctrine, pronounced by President James Monroe in 1823 to warn Europeans against meddling in the Americas, then revived in the 1890s, during the U.S. war against Spain. The inter-American project then moved backstage until Trump tried to revive it once again.

Had Brazil lurched from left to right, the election would have capped an annus mirabilis for Trump in the region (in contrast to his debacles elsewhere). The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at the start of the year handed Trump a supine client state, following elections in Chile that handed power to the far-right candidate, Jose Antonio Kast, whose father was a Nazi lieutenant in the Wehrmacht. Then, in Colombia, the left fell to the Trump-backed right-wing candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella.

In the wake of these victories, veteran Trump allies like Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Javier Milei of Argentina are no longer isolated oddballs. A victory for the far-right Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil would have meant nearly a clean sweep for Trump allies south of Mexico.

In November 2025,........

© The Japan Times