An astounding change is happening to life in England and Wales that most people don’t know about, and when they are told they don’t believe it. Most crime, including violence, has fallen by a remarkable 90% over the past 30 years. But only 6% of people believe it, while 61% think crime is going up. This great denial is the background cause of the prison overflow crisis, as politicians (of all parties) stir up voters to demand ever higher sentences as the imaginary cure to their imaginary soaring crime.

All western European countries enjoy this same remarkable social improvement, with research over decades offering myriad reasons why: populations spending longer in education, CCTV, better security for cars and homes, and young people staying at home to play video games of fantasy crime instead of entertaining themselves with the real thing. Removing brain-harming lead from petrol and abortion of unwanted foetuses at risk of future child neglect are other possible explanations.

This generation inhabits a far less violent society, with many fewer homicides, thefts, burglaries and serious violent crimes, but also far less casual social violence in brawls and punch-ups. Older folk nostalgic for an orderly golden age when no one bothered locking their front door usually situate it just beyond their own memories, in their grandparents’ halcyon days. But radical social change leads to less acceptance of any violence. Online fraud and cybercrime are the ones that are steeply rising, though they are committed by quite different criminals.

The nature of violence has changed, too. Official statistics from the national crime survey for England........

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