Many parts of Australia have already broken early winter maximum and minimum temperature records.

In southern Australia, Sydney and Melbourne had their warmest-ever starts to winter. Daily observations show both cities experienced above-average June temperatures almost every day of the month.

Adelaide has also recorded above-average June temperatures in its first three weeks. Hobart and Canberra had mild starts to winter, with temperatures well above normal. So far, Perth is the only southern capital with typical June temperatures.

The world is experiencing a trend of unseasonably high temperatures driven by global heating, including the early summer heatwave in western Europe and parts of Asia.

So, what can we expect for the rest of the winter season? And does a warm winter have consequences for Australia’s next summer?

Abnormally warm conditions in Australia are likely to continue for at least the coming weeks, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlooks. Long periods of dry weather are likely, especially in late winter and spring, following the recent El Niño development.

However, infrequent cold polar outbreaks still can impact southern Australia due to jet stream “waviness” south of Australia. Here, waviness is the meandering of the air currents as they form the jet stream. If this occurs in a north-south direction instead of west to east,........

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