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Reading The Tea Leaves

Republicans have been messaging on how big these midterms will be for them — whether it’s NRSC Chair Tim Scott saying they’ll keep the Senate or Mike Johnson saying he’ll remain speaker, they’ve painted quite the confident picture.

And while bits and pieces of their public polling reinforce that notion, their checkbooks beg to differ. Last week, Republicans effectively pulled the plug on Michael Whatley, who is running for Senate in North Carolina. Instead, they’re redirecting their funds to Kansas.

That’s right, Kansas.

And to put this into perspective, we’re not talking about a few thousand bucks being shuffled around. We’re talking tens of millions of dollars in canceled ad buys and pulled spending — the whole nine yards.

Now here’s where we run into an issue: if we’re meant to believe that Republicans will hold the Senate, then that would surely mean holding onto North Carolina, right?

While I’m no swampy consultant, I know Kansas is a far cry from a swing state, so if Republicans are cutting their losses in North Carolina to save Kansas, that paints a much, much bleaker picture than Congressional leadership would have us imagine.

That’s why political spending can offer one of the clearest windows into how campaigns and party operatives actually view a race. Candidates can say they’re confident. Campaigns can release rosy internal polling. Consultants can, and will, insist that everything is........

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