Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has regularly targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure with missile attacks. The strategy adopted by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his generals is two-fold: to increase the cost of continuing to resist and to erode civilian morale.

The attacks have aimed to disrupt and destroy Ukraine’s military supply and logistics capabilities, its power generation and civilian housing.

The war on the front lines has reached a bloody stalemate, with ever-increasing casualties, especially on the Russian side where more troops are being killed or injured each month than can be recruited and trained. So Russia’s air campaign conducted behind the front line is clearly seen by the Kremlin as having major strategic value.

Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, said on August 10 that Russia has restructured its defence production to prioritise the production of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles. It is also reportedly receiving missiles from allies such as North Korea (which is also sending 50,000 more troops to fight in Ukraine).

With the ground war in Ukraine not developing as they wish, Moscow’s military planners increasingly view the Ukrainian homeland as a potential weak link.

Russia will be well aware........

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