Australian farmers are heading into spring with an unusual mix of optimism and uncertainty.

The latest crop forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) predicts the nation’s farmers will harvest 61 million tonnes of winter crops.

That would be Australia’s fourth-largest winter harvest on record, sitting 16% above the ten-year average. Despite a dry winter forecast, better than expected rainfall boosted crop growth across South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.

But these national figures don’t capture differences between regions, which can be enormous. For example, conditions in the Mediterranean climate of Western Australia’s cropping zone can be completely opposite to the graingrowing regions of northern NSW with their warm, wet summers.

And fluctuating global fuel and fertiliser markets, coupled with a potentially record-breaking El Niño, are forcing farmers to make some difficult decisions.

Australian farmers are under pressure on multiple fronts. Here are two worth noting.

Far beyond Australia’s borders, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have made fuel, fertiliser, freight and commodity markets even more volatile.

For Australian farmers, the consequences are tangible. High fuel costs and supply constraints limit their ability to apply more fertiliser to their soils. As nitrogen prices soar and forecasts point to a dry end to the season, investing in a crop that may run out of water makes little economic sense.

High fertiliser costs and supply concerns have clearly influenced planting decisions in some regions, according to ABARES data. Some........

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