Four years after a fragile ceasefire ended widespread conflict in Ethiopia, the region is again slipping back into full-out war.

On Sept. 23, 2026, advancing soldiers of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized government positions in northern Ethiopia.

It followed the announcement of a new alliance of seven armed movements in opposition to the Ethiopian government and deteriorating relations between the country and neighboring Eritrea, which it accuses of supporting the new alliance.

As an expert on conflict in the Horn of Africa and Ethiopian national security, I know the spiraling conditions now have been long in the making. The November 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement ended immediate fighting between Ethiopia and Tigrayan rebels, but it did not constitute a comprehensive peace settlement. Crucially, it was never followed by wider political negotiations to address the root causes of the war. The concern now is that the conflicts will intersect with the civil war in neighboring Sudan, causing a complicated, regionwide conflagration.

How has the conflict escalated?

The Sept. 23 ground offensive by the TPLF drew global attention to the situation in Ethiopia. But in reality, the ratcheting up of tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the TPLF has been going on for months.

Throughout August and September, the region of Tigray – Ethiopia’s northernmost constituent state, with an estimated population of roughly 7 million – has been subjected to federal air and drone attacks. Tigrayan organizations and human rights groups reported that schools, residential areas, a farmer training center and a truck carrying food aid were all hit during the air campaign.

The strikes occurred amid mounting tensions over the TPLF’s restoration of the regional political administration that preceded the 2020-2022 civil war, an incomplete disarmament of the group and renewed localized clashes. In short, the federal government accused Tigrayan forces of remobilizing; the apparent purpose of the federal attacks was to degrade Tigrayan military capability.

The federal government had also been squeezing the region economically, by withholding funds needed to pay Tigray’s civil servants and limiting access to banks and fuel, according to the TPLF.

The situation escalated further on Sept. 20 when seven armed organizations announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival in opposition to the federal........

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