We don’t need more babies - and not just because we have migrants

September 25, 2026 — 5:00am

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The worry around falling fertility makes sense … sort of. Deaths in Australia are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s: the first time such a turning point has been forecast in the government’s intergenerational report (a document which has been released at least every five years for the past three decades laying out what the next 40 years might look like).

One forecast in the latest report is that the country’s population growth will slow. We will, however, offset some of the drop-off through migration. But neither more babies nor higher migration are things we should be focused on.

Like most attempts at crystal-balling, exact details and timelines laid out in the intergenerational report are unlikely to play out. But we are grappling with an ageing population – and several other countries around the world have already given us glimpses of what this might look like.

There are several things that understandably might scare us about having a bigger share of older Australians. First, there will be growing demands for health and aged care that come with older bodies and minds – and a very possible shortage of working age Australians able to supply this care by working as nurses and aged care workers.

It’s also a tricky thing for the nation’s budget. While superannuation should help Australians pay for some of this care when the time comes, there will inevitably be people who, for various reasons, need extra support.

Bye bye, babies: A nation living into its 90s is ageing faster than expected

Meeting the higher demand for these services also means the government will need to spend more money on building hospitals and care facilities. At the same time, a shrinking share of the population being working-age will likely leave the government struggling to rake in enough money (through things such as income tax) to pay for everything from schools to hospitals.

The trade-off, then, would be to either ramp up taxes or cut back government spending.........

© The Age