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Adam Zivo: The end of Viktor Orbán

Hungary's Sunday election poised to topple Putin’s Trojan horse in the EU

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Longstanding Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who turned his country into a pro-Russian kleptocracy, is widely expected to be toppled in this weekend’s parliamentary election. His ouster would strike a blow against global authoritarianism, yet both Moscow and Washington, in a perverse alliance, want to keep him in office.

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A generation ago, few would’ve imagined that Hungary — a central European nation of just under 10 million people — would play an outsized role in global politics. However, Orbán’s political maneuvering has turned the country into a beacon of conservative populism and an indispensable asset in Russia’s campaign to influence Europe and the United States.

Adam Zivo: The end of Viktor Orbán Back to video

After Orbán took power in 2010, he subordinated state institutions to his will, conspired with loyal oligarchs to capture most of the national media, and amended Hungary’s constitution to emphasize Christianity and traditional values.

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Previously a staunchly anti-Russian voice, Orbán’s commitment to his vision of an “illiberal state,” as he described it in a 2014 speech, led him to forge an ideological and political alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both men understood that they could govern as de facto dictators, and enrich themselves at their citizens’ expense, so long as they pantomimed the defence of faith and family.

Hungary’s global relevance was marginal during Orbán’s early rule. European leaders were annoyed with his corruption and burgeoning authoritarianism, but they tolerated his behaviour because Hungary, as a European Union member, provided easy access to cheap labour. The rest of the world cared little about the country, seeing it primarily as a case study of democratic backsliding.

Things changed in 2015, when the EU insisted that its member states quickly absorb over one million Middle Eastern refugees, most of whom were young men. Orbán defied Brussels and refused to admit these migrants into Hungary, calling them “Muslim invaders” in a 2018 interview, which bolstered his domestic support and made him a darling of the populist right.

The continent-wide refugee crisis spurred a surge in the European far right, as mainstream political parties refused to address legitimate concerns about mass migration. The far right, in turn, looked to Hungary as an example of good governance, and ideologically ignored the country’s underperforming economy, hollowed-out institutions and paralyzing cronyism.

Meanwhile, Orbán used state funds to establish a constellation of conservative think tanks that, in addition to becoming hubs of MAGA and nationalist ideology, laundered Kremlin talking points for western intellectuals who, having refused to directly associate with Russia, might have otherwise never been pulled into Moscow’s intellectual orbit.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Orbán became Putin’s Trojan horse within Europe. As the EU requires unanimity for foreign policy and financial decisions, Hungary, having veto power like any other member, undermined sanctions against Russia and delayed, diluted and blocked aid packages to Ukraine. Had it not been for Orbán’s obstructionism, Kyiv’s wartime position would have been far stronger.

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The full extent of Orbán’s collusion remains unclear, but, last month, the Washington Post reported that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó regularly provided his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, with reports on sensitive EU meetings. Last week, Poland-based investigative journalists wrote that they had acquired leaked audio from two phone calls wherein Szijjártó told Lavrov that he was trying to ease sanctions on Russian businesses and energy exports.

Worse yet, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday that it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of an October call between Orbán and Putin, wherein Orbán allegedly told Putin that, “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.” The Hungarian autocrat apparently referenced one of Aesop’s fables, in which a mouse frees a lion who earlier showed him mercy, and said that Hungary was the mouse and Russia was the lion.

According to Russian documents obtained by POLITICO, Hungary also signed a secret agreement last December to expand its economic, energy and cultural ties with Moscow.

While Orbán’s rule has paid Moscow handsome dividends, everyday Hungarians have been frustrated with the country’s prolonged stagnation. An energetic political movement has consolidated around Péter Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s party who defected to the opposition after being disgusted with the brazen corruption he witnessed within the government.

Magyar’s pro-European, centre-right Tisza Party has been leading in the polls for over a year, with recent data suggesting a roughly 11 point lead over Orbán’s Fidesz party. Should Sunday’s elections be held fairly and cleanly, a seismic shift in Europe’s political landscape is likely, much to Russia’s distress.

Not only have pro-Kremlin disinformation networks been working overtime to undermine Magyar, the Washington Post reported last month that it had received an internal Russian government report — obtained and authenticated by European intelligence services — showing that Moscow had proposed staging an assassination attempt on Orbán to bolster his popularity and “fundamentally alter the entire paradigm of the election campaign.”

Earlier this year, Magyar also accused Orbán of plotting to blackmail him with a “Russian-style” sex tape featuring him having consensual intercourse with his then-girlfriend in 2024. Hungarian officials denied knowledge of such a plot, and the rumoured tape has yet to come out.

Burdened with a weak economic record, Orbán’s election campaign has resorted to vilifying Ukraine and claiming, inexplicably, that Kyiv wants to turn Hungary into a “colony.” In Budapest, pro-government election materials rarely feature Orbán, but ubiquitously portray Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as an evil force to be resisted.

In February, Orbán asserted, without evidence, that Ukraine was plotting to disrupt Hungary’s energy system and dispatched soldiers to guard related infrastructure. Soon after, Hungarian investigative reporters heard from a source that Orbán, likely in partnership with Russia or Serbia, was planning a false flag attack to this effect. Several Hungarian opposition figures then told The Atlantic in late March that they feared that such an operation would target a pipeline or other energy site.

Lo and behold, on Sunday Serbian President Aleksander Vučić — another pro-Russian autocrat — announced that “explosives of devastating power” had been found by the Serbo-Hungarian border, near a pipeline that transports Russian natural gas to Budapest and beyond. Orbán quickly insinuated that Kyiv was responsible, but Serbia said it found no evidence of Ukrainian involvement. The incident has been widely condemned as the anticipated false flag.

Regrettably, the Trump administration has decided to enthusiastically back Orbán.

In February, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Hungary, where he praised the corrupt autocrat and told him that President Donald Trump was “deeply committed to your success.” Trump gave Orbán his “complete and total endorsement” the following month, and then, this Tuesday and Wednesday, Vice-President JD Vance visited Budapest to openly campaign for Orbán.

During a Wednesday talk at a Hungarian private school, Vance attacked America’s European allies and, in an Orwellian twist, accused Ukraine of attempting to influence Hungarian elections. At a campaign rally, he implored Hungarians to “stand with Viktor Orbán, because he stands for you,” and then, putting his phone to the microphone on stage, called Trump, who heaped praise upon the autocrat and his strict immigration policies.

It was deplorable. The United States once stood for freedom. Now, it shills for anti-western, second-rate dictators. If Hungarians save their democracy with a clean election this Sunday, it will be despite Washington’s wishes.

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