Legendary Radio-Canada news anchor Bernard Derome is synonymous with the iconic phrase “Si la tendance se maintient …” (“If the trend continues”), which he would use in prefacing who appeared headed toward election victory.

With just over a week to go, it looks like the polling trend of the past three years is maintaining, with the separatist Parti Québécois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon headed toward victory on Oct. 5.

PQ support sits at only 29 per cent overall but 36 per cent among francophone voters — crucially, 13 points ahead of the closest rival — in a province where 90 of 127 ridings are more than 80 per cent francophone.

With four main parties dividing the rest of the vote, the péquistes — like the Coalition Avenir Québec before them — could win a majority despite a very low popular vote total.

Many potential PQ voters don’t necessarily want the party’s promised sovereignty referendum, and may have figured they could vote it down later — or presumed a PQ win would fall short of a majority, making a referendum unlikely. Now that polls show the party is flirting with a possible majority, will the sobering experience of the........

© Montreal Gazette