President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Syria as a possible alternative to the Strait of Hormuz has pushed an old energy-security problem back to the center of Middle Eastern strategy. On September 3, Trump reacted positively to a Washington Post report describing Syria’s effort to market itself as an overland corridor from Iraq to the Mediterranean. The interest is understandable. Before the 2026 conflict, crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged 21.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the fourth quarter of 2025. By the second quarter of 2026, flows had fallen to 4.9 mbpd as conflict sharply constrained shipping. The episode showed how quickly dependence on one narrow waterway can become a problem for producers, importers and the wider global economy.

The point, however, is not that pipelines can replace Hormuz. They cannot. Maritime trade remains cheaper, more flexible and able to move volumes that no current overland network can match.

The point, however, is not that pipelines can replace Hormuz. They cannot. Maritime trade remains cheaper, more flexible and able to move volumes that no current overland network can match.

The more realistic objective is redundancy: creating enough alternative capacity to keep a meaningful share of exports moving when the strait is disrupted. Saudi Arabia and the UAE already have that flexibility to a degree. Iraq, Syria, Türkiye and Jordan could broaden it further, but only if proposed projects move beyond announcements and feasibility studies.

Existing Bypass Routes: Useful, but Limited

Saudi Arabia has the region’s strongest operational alternative. Aramco’s East-West Pipeline carries crude from the kingdom’s eastern fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea and can handle about 7 mbpd. During the 2026 crisis, the system was pushed to full capacity, with roughly 5 mbpd exported through Yanbu. That helped Saudi Arabia maintain access to international markets while Hormuz was severely constrained. Yet the route does not remove maritime risk. Oil leaving Yanbu still depends on Red Sea security, and the EIA notes that alternatives involving Suez and the SUMED pipeline are longer, more expensive and limited in capacity.

The UAE has its own strategic hedge through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, outside Hormuz. The line can carry about 1.8 mbpd.........

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