Israel’s forthcoming elections on 27th October, the first since the events of 7th October three years ago and their aftermath, are taking place amid deep polarisation and fierce competition among rival political currents. Issues dividing groups of differing orientations, successive last-minute surprises and opinion poll findings all underscore the complexity of the political landscape. Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party have seen their standing decline, the standing of the right wing has not declined. Depending on the projected electoral outcomes, change could bring de-escalation in the occupied Palestinian territory, but it would not guarantee a fundamental shift in Israel’s occupation policies towards the Palestinians more broadly. Palestinian votes within Israel could weaken the electoral position of Netanyahu, Likud and the governing coalition. The number of seats won by Palestinian electoral lists could also improve the prospects of Netanyahu’s rivals forming a government, although those lists would still have very limited influence over its policies and plans for now.

Just one week before Israel’s elections, Israeli opinion polls remain unable to predict with certainty which party, or even which coalition, will govern, amid fluctuating and closely contested results and the pragmatism of rival parties when it comes to forming a government. This uncertainty persists despite sharp differences among the main contenders over the political leadership’s responsibility for security failures, the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, the rising cost of living and settler violence in the West Bank. US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Israel’s prime minister in the final days before the elections represents an unusual and widely criticised departure from established US practice, suggesting foreign interference at the heart of domestic affairs.

Nevertheless, it may have little influence on undecided Israeli voters, as Trump does not command much trust among Israelis. The late withdrawal of Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, from the race also benefits the anti-Netanyahu camp by helping to consolidate its vote.

Nevertheless, it may have little influence on undecided Israeli voters, as Trump does not command much trust among Israelis. The late withdrawal of Benny Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party, from the race also benefits the anti-Netanyahu camp by helping to consolidate its vote.

In a repeat of an earlier electoral contest, the political landscape appears to be taking shape around a competition between a camp led by Netanyahu and another seeking to bring his tenure to an end. Netanyahu’s standing as prime minister has declined in opinion polls, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his government’s policies, with Gadi Eisenkot emerging as the main beneficiary, enjoying an average lead of nine percentage points. Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar party have alternated at the top of party rankings in opinion polls, with only narrow margins separating them. The change camp led by Eisenkot, which includes, alongside Yashar, the Together list headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats led by Yair Golan, is also polling very close to Netanyahu’s right-wing camp in both support and projected seats. Under the current electoral arithmetic, however,........

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