In a video last June, Prime Minister Mark Carney focused on affordability, security of supply and climate change as three prongs of an energy crisis he sees Canadians facing.

We are once again witnessing the effects of the latter as large parts of the country are hit with wildfires or floods. And U.S. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran —and subsequent price increases for petroleum products — has made the affordability challenge already facing many Canadians even worse.

But security of supply is primarily an issue in Atlantic Canada. Despite our country being the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil, the Saint John refinery, the only one in the region, relies on imported supplies.

The Saint John refinery

Most of the crude oil used by the Saint John refinery is imported from a few major exporting countries. Which countries and the volume they supply has changed over time.

In 2005, the refinery’s largest source of crude oil was Norway, followed by Saudi Arabia. By 2015, Saudi Arabia was the largest, the United States was second, and Norway had become one of the smaller providers. Since 2015, the U.S. has become the dominant source, and Saudi Arabia has been replaced by Nigeria in terms of importance.

Not only has the U.S. become the refinery’s most important source of crude (fig. 1), but the number of suppliers decreased to five by 2025 from 14 in 2010.

Relying on a limited number of sources, one of which (the U.S.) supplies more than half of the crude oil processed by the refinery, threatens the availability and........

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