Everybody is claiming victory in West Asia. President Donald Trump has done so repeatedly, and Iran was shouting defiance every time it fired a missile. Pakistan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif’s picture is being flashed everywhere; the media in Islamabad reported all night about the talks between Field Marshal Asim Munir and US and Iranian officials. Trump now acknowledges that China was an important mediator. Beijing however remains silent.

Let’s look at the facts. Trump has declared that all military objectives were accomplished. Satellite imagery analysis does show considerable destruction of key Iranian facilities such as the Khojr Missile complex outside Tehran — Tehran’s missile use has, indeed, reduced significantly. Tehran’s key enrichment plant Fordow was almost destroyed in June, with highly sensitive centrifuges damaged. Restarting these will require huge resources, difficult after Operation Epic Fury. Though there is no sign of the 440 kg of enriched uranium up to 60%, bringing this up to weapons-grade level will require those centrifuges to function. Other sites like Isfahan are also a pile of rubble.

So at one level, mission accomplished. The US’s motto of “I do as I will” remains........

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