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In the Hormuz window, an opportunity for India

29 0
09.04.2026

When President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 7, 2026 — barely 90 minutes before his own military strike deadline expired — the world heaved a sigh of relief. Oil prices plunged 14–16%. Equity markets from Tokyo to Frankfurt surged. For a planet that had spent five weeks watching the world’s most critical energy chokepoint become a war zone, the pause felt like oxygen returning to a suffocating room.

The deal’s bare bones are this: The US and Israel suspend strikes on Iran; Iran halts “defensive operations” and guarantees commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz — under a fee-collection arrangement jointly administered with Oman. Formal negotiations begin in Islamabad on April 10. Both sides are claiming victory. Both domestic audiences expect irreconcilable outcomes.

Iran’s 10-point proposal — demanding comprehensive sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, recognition of its uranium enrichment rights, compensation for destroyed infrastructure, and the exclusion of US and Israeli vessels from the Strait — remains incompatible with Washington’s red lines. Trump described it as “a workable basis to negotiate”, which in diplomatic language means, “we will talk, but we concede nothing yet”. A particularly contentious element is the monetisation of the Strait itself: Iran proposes a transit fee of approximately $2 million per vessel, shared with Oman and earmarked for reconstruction — effectively institutionalising financial leverage over a waterway carrying one-fifth of global oil and LNG........

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