With just weeks to go until the May elections, one cohort of Scottish voters may hold the result in their hands, says Mark Smith

With a few weeks to go, some of us are still wondering what effect Gorton and Denton might have on May’s election but I’m also thinking about Hamilton, Crosby, Bermondsey and Bradford West. Those were also by-elections (and there are lots of others) that meant a Left/Right/SDP/SNP revolution, or there’s no such thing as a safe Tory/Labour seat anymore, or two-party politics is over. So Gorton and Denton: important, yes. But should we keep it in perspective? Also yes.

The main point is that the trends that show up in events like Gorton and Denton – important though they are at the time – are usually a reflection of the fairly sophisticated way the British electorate behaves: we know the difference between various elections and vote accordingly. Some people will stick with the Greens, of course they will, but many of those who voted Green in the by-election will not do so in a bigger election because by then things will have moved on, stuff will have happened, and the stakes will be higher. Dear Hannah Spencer, I’d keep my hand in at the plumbing if I were you.

The effect the recent success for the Greens might have in the specific Scottish context is not that easy to predict. The polling by Ipsos the other day showed support for the Scottish Greens slightly sliding if anything, down one or two points on the constituency and regional lists, although the fieldwork for the poll was done just before Gorton and Denton so it may miss the effect the coverage and the momentum might have on some voters in Scotland. There’ll be a sense........

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