Three years ago, Washington bet that restricting China’s access to advanced semiconductors would preserve American technological dominance. That bet is not paying off the way its architects imagined. A February 2026 analysis in American Affairs Journal found that China’s semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector has reached a level of maturity that would have seemed implausible just a few years ago.

Huawei is building advanced fabrication facilities in Shenzhen targeting 7-nanometer commercial-scale production as early as this year. SMIC, the state-backed foundry, has repeatedly pushed foreign equipment past its rated specifications to achieve manufacturing nodes that the export controls were specifically designed to prevent. This is the uncomfortable logic of economic coercion: the more you restrict, the more you incentivize the other side to build what you’re withholding.

To be clear, the export controls imposed since 2022, and progressively tightened through 2025, have had real effects. They disrupted China’s semiconductor supply chains, caused price spikes, and delayed access to the most advanced fabrication nodes by multiple years. Independent analysts broadly agree that the United States retains a meaningful lead in frontier chip design and production.

But a May 2026 CSIS assessment found a consistent pattern: every tightening of restrictions has prompted China to double down on state-backed domestic investment. China’s target is roughly 50 percent self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment by 2025, up from 13.6 percent in 2024. Export controls have not halted that trajectory. By some measures, they’ve accelerated it.

Semiconductors generated $627.6 billion in global sales in 2024. China is one of........

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