CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Notes on the Latest Jobs Report

Photo by Hennie Stander

Last year the major anomaly in the labor market seemed to be that we were seeing very weak job growth and only a limited rise in the unemployment rate. The most plausible explanation was that the Trump administration’s immigration policies had sharply curtailed the pace of labor force growth, with the number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable now in the range of 20K to 60K.

In the last three months we seem to be seeing the opposite story. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, after adding 214,000 jobs in March and 179,000 in April, for an average of 188,000 jobs a month — yet the unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 4.3 percent. The household survey actually shows a modest loss in employment of 141,000 over these three months.

The establishment survey is much larger and less erratic, so it is likely giving us a better picture of the state of the labor market. Nonetheless, the disparity in the surveys is striking.

Health Care, Local Government, and Leisure and Hospitality are Big Job Gainers

The health care and social services sector continued to be a big job gainer, adding 47,200 jobs. Local governments had a surge of 55,000 new jobs, the largest gain since March of 2024. Most of these jobs — 43,500 — were not in education, which lessens concern over seasonal adjustment issues. The leisure and hospitality sector added 70,000 jobs, with 48,000 of these coming in restaurants. These three sectors together accounted for all the job growth in May.

Job Growth in the Goods Sector Remains Weak

There was some limited growth in all three components of the goods sector. The logging and mining sector added 4,000 jobs, 3,100 of which were the support activities for mining, which is primarily the oil and gas industry. Employment........

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