The arrival of a new flat season is exciting but, for betting purposes, I prefer to stick to the jumps. On the flat in late March and April, it is so hard to know which trainers have their horses fit enough to do themselves justice and which do not. Since most handlers are still in the dark on their horses’ racecourse fitness, what chance do punters have?

This weekend’s National Hunt fare is, in all honesty, modest so instead I will try to identify some value over the two big meetings that are on the horizon linked to the two Grand Nationals at Aintree and Fairyhouse.

First up is a long shot for the Randox Topham Handicap Case on Friday, 10 April, a race run over the Grand National brush fences the day before the big race itself. PRAIRIE WOLF landed his third win from his last four races at Newbury last weekend and, even at the age of nine, seems to be an improving gelding.

Aintree will water to ensure the ground is at least ‘good to soft’ if the rain stays away

Aintree will water to ensure the ground is at least ‘good to soft’ if the rain stays away

Joint trainers Joe Parkinson and Sue Smith are having a fine season with 38 winners from 201 runners for a strike rate of 19 per cent. The former tells me that Prairie Wolf has come out of the Newbury race in good form, the Topham is his target and the horse has schooled well over National-type fences at........

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