Are the bond markets finally turning on the US government?
Donald Trump has spent much of his second term probing the limits of presidential power. This week, he has discovered another means by which to test them: by promising every American adult $5,000 in the event Republicans retain both houses of Congress. The proposal would cost around $1.2 trillion: representing around 3 percent of America’s $40 trillion in national debt. Washington is likely to reject the idea, but even if they approve it, there is one constituency who is likely to ensure that it remains untenable. That constituency would be the people and institutions expected to lend the United States money.
As a deficit mushrooms to a projected $1.9 trillion, there is still little appetite in Washington for any sort of fiscal course correction. Republicans want reduced taxes, a bolstered military, an industrial renaissance, and robust entitlements. While Democrats might disagree over how the money ought to be spent, they are hardly austere themselves, ultimately promising much of the same by way of social programs. Washington has long quenched its thirst for “more” by using debt; the problem is that borrowing is no longer as cheap as it once was.
The bond market subscribes to no particular ideology, and as such, it imposes an unusual check on populist politics
The bond market subscribes to no particular ideology, and as such, it imposes an unusual check on populist........
