The most revealing developments in the Middle East are no longer occurring along the conventional Iran-United States (with Israel) axis. They are unfolding in Yemen, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the maritime chokepoints interconnecting them. The recent Houthi takeover of a strategically located Yemeni island, their persistent attacks on shipping, and the reported drone attack on Saudi Arabia launched from southern Iraq point towards a conflict considerably more complex than the familiar narrative of “Iran-versus-America”, with Israel in tow. Iran undoubtedly occupies a central position in the region’s network of armed allies and partners. Houthis in Yemen and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq are not identical organisations, nor are they simply puppets controlled from Tehran. Each has its own domestic interests and political objectives. Yet they operate within an ideological and strategic ecosystem in which Iran’s revolutionary worldview, Shia political mobilisation, and opposition to the American-backed regional order have created durable relationships.

The significance of the Houthi advance lies in its geography. Control around the Bab el-Mandeb (maritime gateway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden) gives the Houthis leverage over one of the world’s critical commercial arteries. Their ability to threaten shipping is no longer merely an extension of Yemen’s civil war. It provides an Iran-aligned movement with the capacity to impose costs on Western powers,........

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