The ousting this month of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in a landslide electoral defeat has generated a flood of commentary. Much of it has been about the implications for far-right populism in Europe. Others have focused on the potential impact to U.S. politics, given the close ties of U.S. President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement to Orban’s Fidesz Party and the personal political capital expended by Vice President JD Vance.

What’s gotten less attention is how Orban’s departure will affect geopolitics and military strategy, both in Europe and more broadly. How will his fall change dynamics within NATO, alter the calculus for Ukraine’s future and shape the U.S.-European Union relationship?

I first met Orban soon after he was elected to the premiership for the second time, in the spring of 2010, as I traveled to Budapest in the company of the excellent U.S. ambassador, Eleni Kounalakis (now the lieutenant governor of California). Orban struck me as charismatic and smart. His English was reasonably good and his positions seemed well thought out. I walked away thinking he was someone I would enjoy working with. So much for first impressions.

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