The benefits budget is now a magic money tree. Whenever Conservatives or Faragists make wild promises – tax cuts, more police, more punishment, more bonuses for marriage – and are asked how they would pay, the answer is always “welfare”. The sums are enormous. “Only the Conservatives will cut welfare spending by £23bn and get Britain working again,” the party insists.

More unexpected was the klaxon from the Labour peer George Robertson this week, demanding a cut in benefits to finance defence. “We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget,” said the ex-Nato chief, wanting to pluck this juicy plum to fund defence. Good to see him slapped down sharply by the government: there is no “zero-sum game” between these two budgets, said the chancellor’s deputy, James Murray.

“The benefit budget is out of control” risks becoming an accepted factoid, casually thrown by TV interviewers at any passing minister. For actual facts, turn to the Resolution Foundation’s chief executive, Ruth Curtice, whose predecessor, Torsten Bell, is now pensions minister (and who says his views have not changed since moving to government). Bell has always noted that benefits as a proportion of GDP have stayed within 10-11%. “It’s not out of control,” Curtice echoes. “It’s fairly flat when you look at working-age benefits.” It’s pension costs that rise, because of demographics – an increase in the number of retirees – and because the triple lock is designed to escalate pensions regardless of individuals’ wealth or needs. The working-age benefits bill rises with the rising pension age as more older people waiting for their pension, unable to work, draw sickness benefits. Are they scroungers?

For those relishing Kemi Badenoch’s........

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