So far this month Donald Trump has ordered a military incursion into Venezuela and the capture of its leader, announced he is ready to “take” Greenland, warned Cuba, Colombia and Mexico they too are in his sights and told the New York Times that the only thing holding him back is his “own morality”. He’s now ordered the justice department to open an investigation into the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, all the while appearing to fall asleep during meetings.

What a year, huh?

Unsurprisingly this has led to a fair degree of investor skittishness. Uncertainty is the watchword, given the biggest economy in the world is being run by a somnolent autocrat who is the pettiest grudge holder in world history.

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As a result, despite the level of economic policy uncertainty in the US falling since the madness of last year’s tariff announcements, it remains three times higher than when Trump won the election in November 2024. Essentially, investors and anyone trying to work out what could happen to US policy might as well consult a magic 8-ball:

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When things get uncertain, investors........

© The Guardian