At first glance, the results of this week’s Israeli general election may seem puzzling. Two figures, in particular, could give the wrong impression. First, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerged comfortably as the largest party in the Knesset, winning 26 seats, compared with 21 for its main rival, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which had been expected to lead the pack. Second, the Netanyahu-led bloc, with 53 seats, outperformed Eisenkot’s bloc, which secured only 48.

On the face of it, these results might suggest a personal victory for the incumbent prime minister and an unexpected success for Israel’s right. Yet they tell only part of the story. For a leader facing serious legal challenges over corruption, who was in office during the darkest day in the country’s history on Oct. 7, 2023, and whose record includes a long list of other failures, the fact that he remains in contention could be considered an achievement. But it is far from a victory — not for Netanyahu or for the parties that make up the current coalition. They have little prospect of leading the next government unless their rivals misread the bigger picture emerging from the results.

Admittedly, the outcome can hardly be described as a triumph for the opposition parties, which largely represent the Jewish electorate and identify themselves as the “change bloc” or “correction bloc.” Yet, when these parties are considered alongside a third bloc — one treated as separate only because of the peculiarities of Israel’s political reality, comprising the two Arab parties, the United Arab List, or Ra’am, and the Joint List — the picture changes significantly. The Arab parties appear, for the first time, to have come close to realizing their electoral potential, putting them on course to secure an unprecedented 19 seats in the new Knesset. Together, these forces give the opposition a........

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