El Nino is no longer the familiar climate cycle of the past; it is being reshaped and intensified by global warming. Recent coral records from the Galápagos Islands, stretching back a thousand years, reveal that El Niño’s temperature swings have grown 36 percent stronger in the last four decades, far beyond natural variability. This paleoclimate evidence coincides with real-time monitoring of the Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures are climbing to unprecedented levels. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”  

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño is firmly established and is about to get stronger, with forecasts showing a near-100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has emphasized that “this exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the WMO have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.” These warnings have triggered urgent debate worldwide, but for Pakistan, the implications are particularly severe.  

The question is........

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