In international relations, credibility is an assessment that states or leaders will follow through on their threats, promises or commitments. It is a subjective assessment depending on whether other actors believe any state will make good on its declarations. There is no question that the US still demonstrates overwhelming hard power and retains the unique ability to project and deploy this power in any theatre of war with devastating consequences. The USA's sustained air campaign and military deployments in its current war against Iran show that not just today but for decades to come, it will be able to project force globally. So, in purely military terms, the US military's credibility has remained intact and is unlikely to collapse in decades to come. But what has come under question about the US under the leadership of President Trump and his administration is its moral, political and strategic credibility. The US and European allies seem uneasy and very much alienated, and the lack of a clear endgame in the Iran War raises doubts about the USA's strategic clarity, judgment and credibility. For a great power, credibility is not just about the projection of power but the willingness of its allies and partners to rely on its ability to make the right strategic decisions.

The US under the Trump administration seems to have moved into a scope condition and landed in a credibility trap. To offset this, it seems President Trump is left with little choice but to escalate, just to avoid looking weak. The high point of the US credibility in the past has been its........

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