In his book, The Post-American World, published in 2008, Fareed Zakaria identified three important long-term shifts in the distribution of global power. 1) The rise of the West (15th to 19th centuries), a period during which a world order was created and dominated by Europe. 2) The rise of America (late 19th to 20th centuries), a period during which the US, after the two World Wars, became the central power in the international system. 3) The rise of the rest (late 20th and 21st centuries), a period during which countries outside the West experienced unprecedented economic growth, and the rise relatively reduced Western global dominance. This piece argues that after centuries of Atlantic dominance, geography is once again reasserting itself, and this may lead to a fourth shift of global power by 2050.

The fourth shift is defined as the transition from an Atlantic-centric international order to a Eurasian-centred geopolitical system. If Zakaria's analysis explains the redistribution of power from the West to a wider group of rising states, the period leading to 2050 suggests that by 2050, the world may witness a complete transformation of an international system that is currently suspended between two worlds: one marked by the diffusion of power and the other attempting a transition and shift from West to East. The phrase 'rise of the rest against the West' used by Zakaria was never confrontational in nature. He correctly assumed that the political, military and economic capabilities were being widely distributed, and if we keep the year 2050 as a benchmark, then many geopolitical shifts taking place suggest that this shift may eventually culminate and........

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