For months, Washington’s political class has relied on two U.S. Navy carrier strike groups to maintain a presence off the Strait of Hormuz, attempting to apply pressure via sheer naval capability. But beneath the flamboyant optics lies a brutal logistical crisis: these floating islands are bound by the unyielding laws of economics and physics; they have their limitations. It seems the Pentagon is running a dangerous game of maritime musical chairs.

The Navy cannot sustain its current level of operations indefinitely without placing increasing strain on the fleet, especially under Tehran’s low-cost, asymmetric cycle of attrition. Although hawkish defense planners assert that the fleet can maintain this tempo indefinitely, a nuclear supercarrier is still an island of steel — and basic science dictates that steel rusts when exposed to seawater. The vessels are subject to exponential degradation under continuous combat operations. Any fixes to catapults, arresting gear, and complex radar matrices at sea are merely band-aids. Actual maintenance involves intervention at shipyards already drowning in historic backlogs.

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