Environmental features and geography may be a better predictor of homicides in Latin America than the prevalence of organized crime gangs.

That’s what we found in a recent study that analyzed homicide patterns across Colombian municipalities between 2010 and 2020.

As researchers in place-based criminology, we were interested in understanding whether the locations where violence occurs matter more than the prevalence of organized crime groups operating within them.

So we compared violence levels against the prevalence or proximity of certain environmental and geographical factors, including coca cultivation, gold mining and transportation corridors, such as major roads, rivers, ports, airports and border crossings.

Using statistical models, we assessed the relative predictive power of these environmental features versus the presence of armed actors, including the now defunct revolutionary group FARC and its dissident factions, the guerrilla group ELN, and various organized crime syndicates.

Our results showed that environmental and geographic features were significant predictors of the local murder rate, independent of whether organized crime groups were present.

In fact, many municipalities with a high armed actor presence in eastern Colombia had relatively low murder........

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