A Choose-Your-Own-Adventure analysis of the rise of One Nation

March 27, 2026 — 5:00am

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If you find yourself bored this weekend, comb through the South Australian election results seat by seat and see how many of them boiled down to contests that were Labor v One Nation. Then see how varied the other head-to-head contests are: Liberal v One Nation; One Nation v Independent; Labor v Independent. Then note the alarming scarcity of Labor v Liberal contests.

Amid such upheaval, no comprehensive two-party analysis works. We’re entering a political hall of mirrors, votes pinging wildly around our preferential voting system and emerging at all kinds of erratic angles. Hence, Peter Malinauskas can set a record for parliamentary dominance but still give a sober victory speech about lessons learnt, even though he can’t confidently identify his opposition. One Nation has suddenly arrived and nothing about politics is linear any more.

Perhaps such a non-linear moment deserves a non-linear analysis. And so, inspired by a review of an utterly bonkers football match I read years ago, I’m inviting you to choose how you want to process these similarly bonkers political events. Choose your own analysis. Follow whichever path you like. Follow several. Once you’re done, perhaps you’ll know which you find most persuasive.

Did the South Australian result make you feel the electorate had moved sharply to the political right? If so, proceed to paragraph 1. If not, go to paragraph 3.

1. One Nation emphatically converted polls into votes. But look closely: its vote rose by about 3 per cent more than........

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