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Winning a U.S. Senate majority is often a game of hedging bets. Every so often, though, a political party dares to dream. As we explained last month, Democrats’ most realistic path to retaking the upper chamber on Tuesday runs through a handful of purple and red states. But as Donald Trump’s approval ratings sink, that map appears to be expanding. Polls now show that Democrats’ preferred Senate candidates are competitive in several states Trump won by double digits.

All the usual caveats apply; if the polls are off, Democrats’ strength could turn out to be a mirage. But much ink has been spilled on states like Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina, where Democrats have struggled in recent cycles but appear to be in better shape this year. So instead let’s lavish some attention on the states where Democrats didn’t seem competitive even a few months ago, but which now seem to be in play.

Can a mild-mannered pastor win a state that Trump swept by 16 points in 2024? If Adam Hamilton does, he’ll become another example of how strong candidates can help Democrats defy the odds in the Trump era. Hamilton, a former Republican who founded a Methodist megachurch, has embraced moderate positions and out-raised his opponent, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall’s own scandals may be helping Hamilton, too. Last month, the New York Times revealed that Marshall, a former OB-GYN, had sued hundreds of patients over unpaid bills, including new mothers. Hamilton wouldn’t be the only Democrat who’s managed to win Kansas of late, either; the state has had a Democratic governor since........

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