The US has the military strength; Iran the political resolve. This points to more precarious truces and tit-for-tat strikes in coming months.

The United States has launched a series of strikes on Iran in response to the Iranian targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. These are the most severe violations yet of the Memorandum of Understanding that came into effect on 17 June and may signal an end to the truce.

For the first time since the initial ceasefire on 8 April, US President Donald Trump has definitively stated the ceasefire is over.

These escalating tensions suggest the ceasefire will not turn into a permanent peace. The US is being drawn into a long war with Iran, against its will.

The key sticking point driving the latest round of strikes is Iran’s determination to impose control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Memorandum of Understanding stated Iran would use its “best efforts” to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait with no charge for 60 days. However, tensions immediately spiked over ships using the “Omani route” through the strait. This is a US-endorsed maritime corridor that hugs the coast of Oman and involves international coordination.

Iran wants vessels to use a second........

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