Opinion | India’s Nepal Election Tossup: Gagan Thapa’s Predictably Vs Balen Shah’s Promise

The 2015-’16 Madhesi blockade happened, with an irresponsible mainstream and social media arousing deep anti-India feelings.

On August 3, 2014, during his historic address to the Constituent Assembly in Kathmandu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi advised Nepal to create a Constitution “rishi mann se", or with the foresight and vision of a sage.

Much water has flowed under the bridge since.

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The 2015-’16 Madhesi blockade happened, with an irresponsible mainstream and social media arousing deep anti-India feelings.

In 2000, the Lipulekh dispute erupted, with Nepal publishing a new map including Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura amid a surge in misinformation and disinformation.

Around the same time, then Nepal PM KP Sharma Oli claimed Shri Ram was born in Nepal. Strange and ironic for a communist politician to claim a Hindu deity, but the intention was to rile up India.

Oli himself was unceremoniously kicked out in a Gen Z-led regime change operation last year. An interim caretaker government led by former Chief Justice Sudha Karki got the steering.

But in all this, as Nepal counts votes in its general election, the nation will continue to pay the price for ignoring PM Modi’s wise words. It ended up creating a hotchpotch, please-all Constitution which is structured not to give a bold enough mandate to any party.

Nepal’s Parliament is a halfway house. Nearly 19 million will pick a 275-member legislature, of which 165 candidates are directly elected and 110 selected by proportional representation. So, parties thoroughly rejected by the people continue to enjoy power through the backdoor of proportionality and pull the ruling party down.

Nevertheless, Nepal is too critical for India to ignore. The two nations are culturally, spiritually, and civilisationally one. If Ma Sita was born in Nepal’s Janakpur, she got married to a man from just 460 km away in Ayodhya. Just the Ramayan makes India and Nepal inseparable.

And considering India’s strategic interests in Nepal, a 1,751 km shared border, hydropower cooperation, and bilateral trade of over $10 billion annually, and a predatory China, importance of the elections become paramount.

In the race are the old guard like Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) and Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Centre), both of which reek of dead wood and public rejection.

The battle to watch is between Nepali Congress’s reformist leader Gagan Thapa, 49, and the new, student-backed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP)’s rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah.

From India’s point of view, how do the two stack up?

Balen Shah is the youth-icon candidate, a former rapper, and Kathmandu mayor who had done his MTech from Visvesvaraya Technological University, Karnataka. Gagan Thapa is a reformist, seasoned politician with pro-India credentials.

On border security and stability, Balen Shah may choose domestic reforms over immediate border cooperation. India’s worry would be unpredictability in policies like the 1950 Indo-Nepal Treaty or the Kalapani dispute. But last month, he dropped the China-linked Damak Industrial Park project from his election manifesto. This project, in Oli’s stronghold Jhapa-5 constituency, is a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Such moves assure India about the security of the Siliguri Corridor.

Thapa is less unpredictable, and has always advocated steady bilateral ties, consistent with NC’s historical pro-India leanings. He would likely back joint mechanisms for migration control and anti-trafficking, making him a safer bet for India’s Northeast security.

On economic and hydropower cooperation, Balen Shah’s manifesto focuses on anti-corruption and infrastructure, potentially accelerating stalled projects like Arun-3 hydropower. HIs Indian education could foster tech ties and tourism.

Thapa’s push for economic liberalisation aligns with India’s ‘Neighborhood First’ policy. Deals like the $1.3 billion Upper Karnali hydropower project could get fast-tracked. It may ensure easier FDI inflows and remittances from India, Nepal’s largest investor.

On countering Chinese influence, while Balen has rejected BRI-linked initiatives and slammed Nepal elite’s ties to Beijing, his inexperience might lead to ad-hoc foreign policy changes. He may also find it hard to face up to China’s arm-twisting over Nepal’s $3 billion debt to it.

NC under Thapa has balanced relations but leaned pro-India. He would most likely opt for India-backed connectivity like rail links over Chinese ones.

Balen’s win could energise youth exchanges with India with scholarships, cultural programs, and stronger “roti-beti" ties. But he is susceptible to populist rhetoric.

Thapa can be trusted to have a greater cultural connect which appeals to the Hindu nationalist base in both countries.

A Balen-led government promises to be more dynamic and innovative on diplomacy. It is likely to align Nepal with India’s Act East policy. But his team remains untested.

Thapa will bring continuity in SAARC and BIMSTEC engagements, minimising disruptions.

So, while Balen Shah’s victory could inject fresh energy into India-Nepal ties, Gagan Thapa’s win will mean predictability and alignment on core issues.

India may not be unhappy. It has had to work with much less from electoral outcomes in its neighbourhood lately.

(Abhijit Majumder is the author of the book, ‘India’s New Right’. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views)

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